Friday, January 19, 2007
Thot bubbled #12
We all talk about sunrise industries. Any ideas on which are today's sunset industries? I suspect the airline industry might be on its way down. The question then is, how will people travel from point A to point B across the seas, and fast? Video Technology? Another industry that we might not want to bet too much money on is the proprietory software industry. Which might explain why Microsoft is moving into entertainment and network solutions in a big way. I'd love to hear some top-of-mind thoughts on other possible sunset industries.
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11 comments:
here's some lines that I think will boom: organic products/ products with a social conscience - divine chocolates, RED, method cosmetics, innocent smoothies, fresh n wild etc. bigger n bigger
wine in India: more players, more imports, lower prices, increasing access + appeal
better food and housing in china - more cuisines, better living.. that kinda stuff. westernised appeal.
hotels in india - mid priced good ones in the popular cities. Lots of the big chains don't have full up rooms but they're far too expensive peak season. a travel inn type chain that delivers good service, warmth at the right price.. professionally managed would be a real boon
Sunset not sunrise. Ah well, I guess we could extrapolate the sunset industries from the sunrise industries.
ha ha ha.. sorry, i'm doing the whole optimistic india thing at the mo, reading everytyhing in a positive light!
Dusk = Cola companies (Coke, Pepsi)
Dawn = Fruit Juice & Health drinks
Dusk = Fast Food (Mcdee, Pizza Hut, KFC)
Dawn = Idly vada, poori, poha, vada pav
Dusk = Job Sites
Dawn = Blogs doing recruitment
Dusk = Music System/ CD players
Dawn = MP3/Smart Phone
Dusk = Coffee Parlour
Dawn = Tea Parlour
Dusk = Beauty Salon
Dawn = Ayurvedic Spa
Dusk = Hotel
Dawn = Service Apartments
As a lifelong fan of south indian food (the secret to which I believe was handed down to us by aliens visiting our ancient forefathers; hence the resemblance of the idlis to flying saucers) I am glad to note that Roop thinks the stock of idlis will continue to rise :)
I, for one, think (rather controversially) that research in advertising and marketing is a sunset industry.
I don't think the development of video technology will have any significant effect on travel. There is something about meeting someone in person that business deals, interviews and the like will continue to be done in person. Since air travel continues to be the most convenient way of travel (at least in the US), I don't see it going away any time soon. In India, the airline industry may consolidate and LP Yadav may make trains even more popular (if that is even possible), but if you have ever tried to catch a Deccan flight from Delhi to Mumbai in the evening you know that there is no shortage of customers.
I don't see blogs doing any serious recruitment either. There are splogs doing that all the time and people assign little credibility to them. I continue to see recruitment done via companies websites and job sites.
I think service apartments may become more popular due to the increasingly mobile populace of India, but I'd wager (based on nothing but hot air) that most hotel customers are there for the short term in which case I too see medium grade hotels on the rise. As the number of people using cars to travel rises, the number of motels will also increase.
The CD player to MP3 shift has already happened largely. Music systems however aren't going anywhere, the phrase will just change its meaning to mean a speaker setup rather than a player +speaker setup.
Shift to health drinks, ayurved, organic etc - definitely. Shift to wine - very likely since I hear they are going to let grocery shops sell alcohol now. Shift to tea parlor, maybe - tea places are doing decently well in cities like Mumbai and Ahmedabad, they just need to add more jazz like the hukkahs at Mocha.
I see more restaurant chains. If Reliance's past performance in entering new markets is any evidence, I see them taking a chunk of organized retail and making it more popular (The whole one walmart per 5 small town concept in the US is just waiting to be stolen if Reliance can provide equally cheap deals).
Ajju on your first point, I think in few years physical meeting will be replaced by virtual meeting. It has already started in US/UK. I mean stuff like WEBEX, GoToMeeting, Netmeeting etc. Two reason, one huge cost saving for companies. Second, faster response time to critical issues which otherwise take longer travel time.
Though I agree nothing like a one to one meeting, but this technologies will further develop as more broadband connection penetrate in India. News Channel for sure will benefit from this kind of technology.
Right you are when you said Music Players replaced by Speaker Systems. And on your last point on Reliance, I believe they're already working towards that direction. Infact, they have plans to set up huge rural hyper-markets next year onwards.
You may be right but I have done my share of webexes and I personally hate them. As if meetings aren't already boring enough, you now let people attend in their underwear and hope they'll pay attention. Fat chance.
I am not saying that these things aren't be widely adopted (We do a webex every other day) but let's face it, how many times do you travel to attend meetings where the ppt was the main reason? Then again that may just be my evil luddite alter-ego speaking.
"aren't be widely adopted"
My English grammar teachers are shedding tears right now.
I for one think, equally controversially (for a creative person) that research will not go away but increase. Doing good research is the best way to make clients spend good money.Research is not a sunrise industry but it is a growth industry.
Uber - I agree that research will become increasingly important, just that lines will blur and we will use alternative ways of understanding the ever complicated consumer & the world around us. methinks back to simplicity. conversations and user experiences rather than stat tools and data tables. I have faith in research, used properly. And I get really mad when it's abused, like when clients pick out a single thing from 4 groups and harp on and on about the type size. aarggh / *sigh*
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